The Paradox of Plenty: Gabon’s Structural Dependency on France and the West

Gabon, a country of immense natural wealth, presents a compelling case study of Africa’s structural dependency on Western powers. Its story is one of a “paradox of plenty,” where vast resources, particularly oil, have not translated into widespread prosperity or genuine economic sovereignty. Instead, the country’s trajectory since independence has been shaped by a complex and enduring relationship with its former colonial master, France, and its integration into a global system that has perpetuated its role as a resource exporter.

The origins of Gabon’s dependency are deeply rooted in its colonial history. As part of French Equatorial Africa, Gabon was subjected to an economic system designed to extract its timber and, later, its minerals for the benefit of French industries. This model suppressed the development of local manufacturing and diversified agriculture. Crucially, post-independence, this relationship did not end. Under the long-reigning presidency of Omar Bongo, Gabon became a key player in “Françafrique,” a term used to describe France’s enduring influence in its former colonies. French oil companies, most notably Elf Aquitaine, played a dominant role in the Gabonese economy, and French military bases and advisors maintained a strong presence, effectively ensuring political stability that served French interests. This neocolonial arrangement allowed France to secure access to Gabon’s strategic resources, including uranium and oil, while providing political backing to the Bongo regime.

Today, this structural dependency is evident in Gabon’s economic profile. The country’s economy is overwhelmingly dominated by a few extractive industries, with oil, manganese, and timber accounting for over 90% of its exports. This reliance on primary commodities makes Gabon highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global prices, as seen during periods of low oil prices which have led to debt problems. Despite being an upper-middle-income country, a significant portion of the population lives in poverty, and income per capita has stagnated or even declined over the past few decades. The public sector, largely financed by oil revenues, employs a majority of the formal workforce, while a weak private sector and a poor business climate hinder diversification. Furthermore, while the country has engaged with new partners, France remains a leading supplier and a major investor, with over 100 French companies operating in the country.

Gabon in a Multipolar World: A SWOT Analysis

As the global landscape shifts, Gabon faces a pivotal moment. The recent military coup in 2023, which ousted the Bongo dynasty, signaled a potential new era, but the country’s path forward will be determined by its ability to navigate a multipolar world. A SWOT analysis reveals the key factors at play:

Strengths:

• Resource Wealth: Gabon possesses immense natural resources, including oil, manganese, iron ore, and vast forests that cover over 85% of its landmass. These forests are a global asset for carbon retention and biodiversity.
• Political Stability (Post-Coup): The recent change in leadership, while initially a source of uncertainty, has been framed by the transitional government as an opportunity to address decades of corruption and weak governance.
• Conservation Leadership: Gabon has demonstrated strong political commitment to environmental protection and sustainable forestry, positioning itself as a leader in green growth and ecotourism.
• AfCFTA Potential: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers an opportunity to reduce dependence on traditional export markets by fostering intra-African trade and creating new regional value chains.

Weaknesses:

• Extreme Commodity Dependence: The economy’s heavy reliance on oil and other extractive industries leaves it vulnerable to global market volatility and the long-term threat of the energy transition.
• Lack of Economic Diversification: Decades of focus on the oil sector have stifled the development of other industries, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism, which are essential for sustainable growth and job creation.
• Infrastructure Deficit: Despite significant spending, key infrastructure like roads, railways, and reliable power and internet services remain underdeveloped, hindering economic integration and competitiveness.
• Weak Governance and Corruption: A legacy of poor governance, with limited transparency and widespread corruption, has historically led to a decline in per capita wealth and the failure to translate resource wealth into improved living standards for the majority.

Opportunities:

• Diversification of Partnerships: The multipolar world allows Gabon to forge new economic and political relationships with emerging powers like China, Russia, India, and others, potentially securing better terms for trade and investment.
• Value-Added Processing: By investing in the domestic processing of its raw materials—such as refining timber and manganese—Gabon can capture more value, create jobs, and build a more resilient economy.
• Ecotourism and Green Economy: Its rich biodiversity and commitment to conservation present a unique opportunity to develop a thriving ecotourism sector and attract green investment, which could serve as a new engine for growth.
• Harnessing the Demographic Dividend: With a young and growing population, strategic investments in education, skills training, and job creation can transform this demographic dividend into a powerful force for development.

Threats:

• Debt Burden: The country faces a high risk of debt distress, with a growing public debt that could limit its ability to invest in essential reforms and development projects.
• Geopolitical Competition: As a resource-rich nation, Gabon could become a site for a new “Scramble for Africa” as global powers compete for influence and access to its resources.
• Climate Change: While a leader in climate action, Gabon remains vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which could affect its agricultural sector, coastal regions, and biodiversity.
• Failure to Reform: Without fundamental reforms in governance, economic policy, and business climate, the country risks repeating the same patterns of dependency and inequality that have plagued it for decades.

Charting a New Course: Ways Out of the Western System

To break free from its structural dependency, Gabon must pursue a comprehensive strategy focused on reclaiming its economic and political sovereignty. Based on various analyses and successful models from other countries, here are some key steps:

1. Strategic Economic Diversification:

• Ban on Raw Material Exports: The government must enforce and expand bans on the export of raw materials like logs, incentivizing domestic processing and the development of value-added industries.
• Invest in Non-Oil Sectors: Prioritize and heavily invest in sectors with high growth potential, such as sustainable forestry, agriculture, fisheries, and ecotourism, with targeted support for local businesses and entrepreneurship.
• Leverage the AfCFTA: Actively engage in the African Continental Free Trade Area to access new markets for its processed goods and to participate in regional supply chains, reducing reliance on Western consumers.

2. Fiscal and Financial Autonomy:

• Prudent Debt Management: Negotiate for debt relief and restructure existing loans to free up fiscal space. Implement rigorous controls on public spending and prioritize borrowing for productive, long-term investments.
• Reform the CFA Franc System: As part of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), Gabon’s currency, the CFA franc, is pegged to the Euro. This limits monetary sovereignty and can be a source of economic constraint. Exploring reforms to this system, or even alternative monetary unions, is a critical step toward true financial independence.
• Combat Illicit Financial Flows: Implement robust measures to combat corruption and illicit financial flows, ensuring that the country’s wealth remains in Gabon to fund domestic development.

3. Strengthen Human Capital and Governance:

• Invest in Education and Skills: Overhaul the education system to provide the skills needed for a diversified economy, with a focus on technical training, green technology, and entrepreneurship.
• Good Governance and Rule of Law: Implement deep-seated governance reforms to improve transparency, fight corruption, and establish a clear and predictable legal and regulatory framework that attracts responsible and sustainable investment.
• Strategic Partnerships, Not Dominance: In a multipolar world, Gabon must be a shrewd negotiator. It should seek partnerships with all global players, but on its own terms, ensuring that these relationships serve Gabon’s national interests and development goals, not just those of its partners.

By committing to these transformative changes, Gabon can move beyond its colonial legacy and the neocolonial systems that have held it back. The recent change in leadership presents a unique opportunity for the country to forge a new path, one where its immense wealth is used to build a resilient, diversified, and prosperous future for all its people.